Societe Generale Global Markets Conference convenes in Singapore

Taking place on May 15, just weeks after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an extraordinary barrage of US tariffs on April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day”, the sessions provided timely insights into how investors are navigating this unpredictable period in global markets. 

The message for the audience was clear: investors must get used to a world where policy now drives fundamentals, rather than the other way around. And with plenty of room for further geopolitical surprises, volatility and uncertainty are now a constant. 

Policy experts warned that more uncertainty lies ahead in Trump’s second presidential term. 

Drew Thompson, Senior Fellow at S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, pointed out that it was important to pay attention to the contest of ideas in Trump’s cabinet. 

“There are very consistent schools of thought [within the Trump administration] - for example, isolationists and those keen on a pivot to Asia within the national security apparatus,” said Thompson. 

Thompson, however, warned the audience not to assume that the US was in decline. 

Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore, agreed that the US was not in decline.

“If there’s one society that can handle chaos and actually become strong as a result of it is the United States of America,” said Mahbubani. 

Bringing Europe and Asia Together

With US exceptionalism increasingly in question, the conference highlighted renewed investor interest in Europe and Asia.

The US, European and Asian financial markets have shown contrasting performances this year, with long-term sovereign yields also on different paths. The 10-year US Treasury rose to 4.3% after Liberation Day, while the 10-year Bund fell to 2.5%, erasing the rise it had posted on the announcement of Germany’s stimulus plan shortly before. 

A revival of growth in Europe could lead to a “fundamental difference in market dynamics”, said Francisco Oliveira, Societe Generale’s Co-Head of Global Markets and Head of Fixed Income and Currencies. 

“The financial system is efficient in connecting these dots,” he said. “If Europe gets its act together, in the future we are going to be living with a very different correlation of financial assets.”
Asia, meanwhile, can continue to grow its share of the global economy, despite a shift in US trade policy, according to Kishore Mahbubani. 

“We are seeing structural changes of a scale we've never seen before,” he said. “The 21st Century will be very different than 19th and 20th Centuries. And clearly the rising powers are going to come from Asia.”

Wei Yao, Chief Economist and Head of Research, Asia Pacific, Societe Generale, highlighted the implications of US-China tensions for the wider region – a key concern for investors across Asia Pacific.  

“It’s not yet clear how the US-China relationship is going to affect the rest of Asia,” she said. 

While talk of a new world order may be premature, Wei acknowledged that the geopolitical balance of power is shifting. It is, perhaps, “the beginning of the beginning”, she said, adapting the famous words of former British prime minister Winston Churchill. 

Innovation and AI: Shaping the Future

Despite the geopolitical noise, innovation and artificial intelligence (AI) remained compelling themes. Speakers discussed how Large Language Models (LLMs) were enhancing investment analysis by synthesizing and cleaning unstructured data, as well as how advancements in agentic AI had impacted the wealth management sector. 
The panel also noted China’s AI advancements, where geopolitical concerns may have inadvertently led to the acceleration of domestic innovation and the development of a homegrown AI ecosystem.  

“AI is literally becoming a part of daily life, with agents for a wide range of tasks,” said Puneet Singh, Head of Equity Quant Research, Asia Pacific, Societe Generale. “For the investment industry, using AI tools to turn unstructured data into something you can feed into your machine-learning models would be a game-changer.”

The Only Certainty is Uncertainty

Panellists also discussed how to navigate an unpredictable period in global investing.

“We are entering this new world of high policy uncertainty and potentially structural changes,” said Stephen Spratt, Developed Markets Rates Strategist, Asia Pacific, Societe Generale. “This is going to create opportunities for investors who feel that markets are overpricing or underpricing rates outcomes.” 

Within fixed income, speakers highlighted that duration risk was not the hedge it had once been, and that shorter duration portfolios now made more sense.  
Simple portfolios – not anchored to any particular outcome – have outperformed. In this time of unpredictability, attendees heard that there could be more to be gained from being reactive than proactive.

Faced with unpredictability, the conference underlined the importance of agility when it came to unlocking opportunities. 

“We aspire to be relevant to our clients in providing deeper liquidity, providing better advisory and being able to follow their needs around the world,” said Societe Generale’s Oliveira. 
With a range of perspectives from around the world, the Global Markets Conference showcased Societe Generale’s ability to connect investors and thought leaders across Asia Pacific and with Europe. It is insights like these that will help our partners and clients navigate the challenges of an increasingly complex world.