SG Market Risk Outlook


Looking for insights on Market Risks for the coming months? Covering economics, equities, rates, credit, forex, emerging markets and commodities, the January 2019 Societe Generale Market Risk Outlook summarises and assigns a probability to each asset class' upside and downside risk outlook.

Long macro investors should be forgiven for some of their gloom heading into 2019 – after all, they did just endure the worst year since the start of the global financial crisis, now more than ten years ago. With the exception of the US treasury bond market, long investors would have lost money in 2018 across all asset classes, including commodities, credit, sovereign debt, inflation bonds and of course equities.

There is a silver lining, however. Whenever we alter the assumptions that feed into our central scenario forecasts, the probability of any risk materializing shifts across our respective markets. Since October, certain risks have indeed either materialized, become less likely or been integrated into the central scenario. At the same time, few new risks have become manifest. In other words, and looking broadly across the different markets, the distribution of identifiable risks has compressed.

This 2019 edition of the SG Market Risk Outlook seeks to help you navigate these uncertainties, and to provide clarity and conviction on our key calls. We provide both conviction levels (how probable we see our base case scenario playing out) and quantified upside and downside scenarios across the principal asset classes, including equities, rates, credit, FX, emerging markets and commodities. Multiple risks to both the upside and downside by asset class are discussed.

SG Cross-Asset Research is composed of more than 200 Analysts, Strategists, Economists and Quant, combining their expertise into ‘Research-based’ and innovative solutions suited to client’ needs: fundamental studies and expert views, investment ideas and long-term strategies, trade ideas and tactical baskets, thematic and systematic indices, quant solutions. On top of its established UK and Western European base, SG Cross-Asset Research benefits from a global coverage thanks to its presence in the US and in Asia (Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo and Bangalore) and Societe Generale local networks in Eastern Europe.

This editorial contains financial analysis which reflects the opinion of the Cross-Asset Research department of Societe Generale at the date of its publication. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the other departments of Societe Generale nor the official opinion of Societe Generale. This interview is dedicated to institutional and professional investors and is not deemed to be seen and used by retail investors for investment purpose. The viewers shall consult their own financial advisers to make their own appraisal.